The purpose of the Machine at Bet to Win is to identify the races where the Favourites have the highest probability of winning the race. I have collated the data from the machine and analysed it in detail to find combinations of different coloured races, scores, number of runners and so on, whereby different types of bets have an 80% + chance of winning. This is what the selections are based on. This is an organic approach and changes and adapts depending on what happens over time. The strike rate for the Machine Focus to date hovers around 80%.
What types of bets will you place?
• FP = Favourite place
• FW = Favourite win
• 2FP = Second favourite to place
• BMD = The top 2 favourites as a dutch bet
• T3D = The top 3 favourites as a dutch bet
• T4D = The top 4 favourites as a dutch bet
• FP & 2FP dutch = Dutching the top two favourites in the place market.
(Be aware that sometimes the order of the favourites is different in the place market than the win market. You need to make sure that the two horses selected in the place market are those that present themselves as favourite in the win market.)
Important points to note:
There are a number of elements you need to be aware of, and due to me posting these selections early in the morning, you will need to make some decisions based on the odds that present themselves later in the day.
• If FP odds are less than 1.15, the bet becomes BMD
• If the combined odds of any of the selections are less than 1.15 then the race becomes a No Bet
• If you can add an extra horse into the selection then do
• If 2FP runners become less than 8 then the race become a No Bet
Staking Machine settings should be:
• Pro Staking Selected
• Initial % to Bet is 1%
• The Divisor is set at 1.35
P & G Tips
This has derived from data collected and looks at Purple and Green Non Handicapped races only. Each day the races to play are posted.
Favourite Place - Pro staking
For this approach the minimum odds to play is 1.15. In TSM the Pro staking method is selected. The initial % to Bet is 1% and the Divisor is set at 1.5. All selections are played that fit the criteria.
This is based on the machine stats. You will need the C20 spreadsheet - download here:
The C20 is an accumulator approach. After each win some of the money is retained in order that we only bet with the bookies money. However, if a debit, we continue the sequence. I know it sounds crazy, however, this works and we can often hit 70% + of our bank within a week. Each day the results are posted.
The MGrid will show PLAY for the races
Odds to be 1.10 or greater
1. Are the odds of the favourite <2 in the win market? If yes then you play FP
2. If no then a group bet is applied. I try and group all the horses together until I am at an odds gap of 2.5. So if the 3rd horse odds are at 4.5 and the 4th horse odds are at 7 I would group the top 3 favourite (T3D). If however the 3rd horse was at 4.5 and the 4th horse at 6.5 I would then look to make it a T4D. I would check the gap between the 4th and 5th horse. I keep doing this process until I am 1.10 combined odds.
3. If the number of runners drops to 3, then a NB.
4. In the C20 approach we don't bet just the top two (BMD). We only bet FP or a group bet of 3 or more.
You need to have a different mentality with this approach. If you have any concerns - then don't play the bet. The idea is to win 🙂 There is always another race.
If you have any questions, or require further assistance, please leave a message in the comments box on the page.
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