Irish Wizard Gears Up For The Stateside Campaign!!
I have modified this information from work put together by Grey on the US racing project.
My notes from Grey say 'a lot of members seemed to find it difficult to grasp'.
Understandable, even though it's a very well put together method from Grey and I see exactly what he was doing.
It's deadly, but you have to put the effort in.
However, I am going to try and hook out races and rules with named selections.
I leave this updated method from Grey as a way of getting started.
There will be a further post from me later in the day with some bets for this evening, hopefully!
We need to use Betting Assistant and the US track needs to have SP In Play available.
1. We are looking for an economic bet Stateside
2. We want to align all relevant data on the ATR race card with the Live Market
3. That is: a) Betting forecast b) ATR Verdict c) Top Tip d) 'watch out for' e) The live market
From an idea I had when in conversation with a member the other day, let's start with a breakdown on what the optimum convergence is of every factor in Lesson 1.
With US racing the markets do not mature (unless bigger races) until quite close to the off and it's the Live market where we need to see the converging selections.
Let's use around 1.25 as our minimum odds.
Here is Race 1 17.25 Parx later today:
So refer to Lesson 1 for all the converging factors
I wouldn't have thought we will get more than 5 horses in a bet minimum odds 1.2 - so which 5 horses will they be?
Let's look at the ATR card.
1. Betting forecast has Chief Carlson, Ok Lefty, Macro Zoom & Profire as the forecast T4D
2. Top Tip is Profire and 'watch out for' is Macro Zoom
3. ATR verdict has Profire Macro Zoom but also mentions Catch Me Kaz which is forecast 6th favourite.
What can we conclude here?
We know that Profire and Macro Zoom definitely have to be in the bet and Catch Me Kaz also has to be in there.
On the basis of this ATR race card we need to get 5 horses in our minimum odds Group.
The forecast favourite Chief Carlson and the forecast 2nd fav OK Leftie need to be in for a maximum convergence and to really seal it, you would be looking for around a 1pt gap to the next in the betting.
After going through the entire Parx card yesterday evening, it became clear that there are two types of qualifying bet that can be distilled from my method. Very strong bets they are too.
You are simply looking to get all factors outlined within the ATR card as discussed in previous lessons within an economic bet. That is, the first four say (maybe five in bigger fields) from the ATR betting forecast, the selections mentioned in ATR Verdict, the Top Tip and the 'watch out for'.
In this tactic you are not looking to align these in the live market, you simply want them in an economic bet of 1.25 minimum I would have thought.
Here we want all of the above but 'aligned' within the live market and preferably with a gap to the next in the betting. There were two absolutely PLUM bets last night for this tactic, both winners.
The staking I am using for this campaign is laid out in Forum thread, in the Feb 5th post.
8.47 Tampa is a very interesting v.2 as a raft of non runners meant you had to reduce the selections from the 4 data category's. Referring to lessons 1,2,3 will enable you to do that.
The only plays were Chrisi and Spark Kit. Why?
The forecast fav, 2 & 3 favs were all non runners. The non runners included all mentioned in the data category other than Chrisi.
To get the next selection you simply scroll along the betting tissue to find the next runner which is Spark Kit and that was the winning BMD.
9.14 Aqueduct was a classic v.1. The first four in the betting forecast were all contained within the data category's and were aligned in the live market to boot. APART from the fact that Mighty Zealous went off as favourite, yet was forecast as 6th favourite. So essentially, you played a T5D omit the favourite in this winning race.
More examples to follow this evening and over the weekend.
The post in Forum is essential reading and I will also try and get my timing right, to screenshot the live market before the off.
The staking for this can be found in my BTW Stateside Forum thread where I was basically playing a set number of points to land a four race accumulating Quad, using Ted's 'Rolling Coup' tactic.
In the event of non runners, you simply eliminate that selection from the calculations and to complete the group go to the betting tissue on the card and use the next named selection.
These are my exact steps to sort out the bet:
1. Tick off the first four or five in the betting tissue on the BA live market
2. Check that the other data category's do not have an outsider in them
3. If the tissue 1st, 2nd, 3rd fav are all named in the other data categorys I can eliminate the fourth fav in the tissue.
As with most things, it's a question of 'doing' not 'reviewing' and if anyone is interested in learning how to nail these bets (trust me, it is very simple once you get the knack), then let me know in the chat box or leave a question here in the post.
Everything required to get the knack on this technique is in the lessons 1-5 and if something is not clear then please let me know, it will help me as well as help you 🙂
Race 1: 6.38 Tampa - v.2 with all the selections within the 4 data categorys' aligned within the live market.
Race 2: 7.08 Tampa - v.2 all the selections from the 4 data category's aligned in the live market
Race 3: 7.38 Tampa - v.1 as the selections mentioned in the data categorys' were not aligned in the live market but could be Grouped in an economic bet.
Race 4: 8.10 Tampa - v.2 as all the selections lined up in the data category's were aligned in the live market.